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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.